Restoring strategic alignment: the United States and India move toward a “grand deal” to contain China

On February 2, 2026, President Donald Trump announced the achievement of strategic agreements with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

According to his statement, the United States committed to reducing the 50% tariff pressure on New Delhi to 18%, while India agreed to eliminate tariff and non-tariff barriers for the US, abandon purchases of Russian oil in favor of supplies from the US and Venezuela, and begin implementing a five-year program to purchase American goods totaling $500 billion.

Although the formal signing of the agreement is expected in mid-March, the existence of corresponding official positions from Donald Trump and Narendra Modi indicates their readiness to sign the “big deal.”

In line with the White House’s foreign policy strategy, India is one of the key states for implementing the policy of “strategic decoupling” between the US and the PRC. This is driven by India’s geoeconomic, demographic, and industrial potential, which is capable of competing with China’s on a systemic—and civilizational—level.