China’s strategy and Pope Leo XIV: defending Taiwan and rejecting rapprochement with the PRC

On May 8, 2025, the Vatican Conclave elected Robert Prevost as the new Pope, henceforth known as Leo XIV. Receiving 105 of 133 cardinal votes, he assumed leadership of the Vatican and the Roman Catholic Church.

Shortly after his appointment, he proclaimed his civilizational vision: to continue the tradition of Christian democracy championed by Pope Leo XIII, regarded as a patron of the Second Industrial Revolution, and to serve as a spiritual guide in an era of easy dopamine from scrolling and artificial intelligence.

Official Beijing had assumed the conclave would elect Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Holy See’s Secretary of State (2013–2025) and chief architect of Vatican-China dialogue under Pope Francis, as this would have opened significant opportunities for the systematic expansion of the Catholic flock in China. However, by the second round of voting, Parolin began losing ground to the candidate who would become Leo XIV.