The Baltic perimeter as a new space for hybrid actions by the autocratic axis: coordinated Russia–China operations against NATO logistics

On May 26–27, 2025, an unscheduled meeting of NATO’s Critical Infrastructure Group took place in Sweden. The reason was nine combined incidents in the Baltic Sea over the previous six months: detentions of civilian tankers, sabotage of underwater cables, and flights by Su-24 aircraft intercepted by NATO planes.

NATO representatives concluded that the series of attacks indicates a growing threat from the autocratic axis. These actions are part of a global strategic approach that has transformed the Baltic region from a zone of episodic events into a full-fledged operational area.

This transformation is a calculated response by Moscow and Beijing to the deployment of cooperative mechanisms between Baltic region countries and Ukraine.

The Ukrainian front remains a key factor determining the global balance of power, shaping the timing and sequence of subsequent stages of the global conflict.