Australia and Japan prepare to diversify Pacific defense supply lines without direct U.S. involvement

On December 12, 2025, the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)—the country's leading security-analytical center, affiliated with the Ministry of Defense—published a new forecast.

According to it a large-scale military clash in the Indo-Pacific could lead to significant operational separation among democratic allies (Japan–Australia defense cooperation in the Pacific: The case for a partial division of labor).

The document anticipates that in the event of the U.S. focusing on containing the PRC along the First Island Chain, responsibility for protecting critically important economic arteries in the Pacific will essentially fully shift to Australia and Japan.