Trump and his inner circle enter a new phase of rivalry with neoconservative elites: a struggle between pragmatic and values-driven approaches

Throughout the fall of 2025, a series of local and special elections across several states demonstrated that the Republican Party’s electoral momentum had begun to erode.

Democratic candidates won special elections to the House of Representatives in Tennessee, Texas, and New Jersey, as well as a number of local races in New York, where Republicans lost ground in legislative bodies and key municipal councils.

These outcomes were widely interpreted as a signal of shifting political attitudes within major urban agglomerations.

In parallel with these defeats, Donald Trump’s job-approval rating, according to RealClearPolitics, fell from over 50 percent at the outset of his term to roughly 43 percent in the fall of 2025.

A November Gallup poll recorded 36 percent support versus 60 percent of respondents expressing a critical assessment of the President’s performance—deepening doubts among segments of the party elite regarding the White House’s ability to secure a victory in the 2026 midterm elections.