50 days to reach an agreement: Trump’s ultimatum to Moscow forces China to carefully calculate scenarios for steering Russia

On July 14, 2025, following a meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, Donald Trump issued demands to Russia, stipulating that an agreement to cease hostilities in the Russian-Ukrainian war must be reached within 50 days.

The deadline expires on September 3 — coinciding with Vladimir Putin’s invitation to Beijing for a military parade, forcing China to choose between supporting Moscow and maintaining access to the U.S. market.

In the absence of concessions from the Kremlin on the negotiation track, the U.S. President announced the introduction of “secondary tariffs” of 100% on products from countries continuing trade with Moscow.

By implementing these “secondary tariffs,” Washington simultaneously reduces Russia’s export revenues and amplifies the asymmetry of interests between Beijing and Moscow in global trade.