Maintaining oil prices within a narrow band: Washington de-escalates the UAE–Saudi conflict to preserve leverage over global energy markets

On December 30, 2025, Secretary of State Marco Rubio held talks with the foreign ministers of the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, during which the parties discussed the impact of the conflict in Yemen on regional security and stability. Several days earlier, the Secretary of State had urged the parties to seek a diplomatic solution.

The escalation of confrontation between two U.S. allies in the southern Arabian Peninsula began after a large-scale offensive by armed formations affiliated with the Southern Transitional Council (STC), which seek to secure the independence of southern Yemen and rely on support from the UAE.

Southern Yemeni groups seized large areas in the Hadramawt and Al Mahrah provinces, whose strategic importance for the parties to the conflict is driven by the presence of significant energy resources, land borders with Saudi Arabia and Oman, and access to the Indian Ocean.