Strategic incompatibility: TikTok control as a projection of the inevitable geopolitical clash between the U.S. and China

On April 16, 2025, the National Bureau of Statistics of China announced a 5.4% increase in GDP in the first quarter. This figure was higher than forecasted at 5.1%.

One of the reasons for exceeding expectations was the outstripping growth in export orders. A significant number of companies, predicting an escalation of the tariff war between the US and China, stockpiled goods in advance, which led to a temporary increase in Chinese production.

However, satellite data, freight traffic, and the explosion of corporate debt show that the real slowdown is masked by a one-time surge in exports “for future use” amid a tariff war with the United States.