On March 18, 2026, the Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.5–3.75% and postponed any rate cuts indefinitely.
Markets had anticipated cheaper credit in the first quarter but instead received a clear signal that elevated borrowing costs will persist for a longer period. Fed Chair Jerome Powell explicitly linked this decision to the oil shock triggered by the U.S. operation in the Middle East.
The inflation forecast based on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index was revised upward to 2.7% for 2026, compared to the December projection of 2.4%.
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