Islamist Offensive in Mali: The Prospect of a 'Syrian Scenario' Unfolding in the Sahel

On April 25, 2026, a coordinated offensive by Islamist groups JNIM (Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin) and the Azawad Liberation Front engulfed key cities in Mali. 

The Malian army and units of the Russian African Corps withdrew from Kidal after negotiating safe passage with militant leaders, retreating to Bamako and the junta’s main military base in Kati. 

On April 27, they abandoned a second base and the Tessit сity in the Gao region following a JNIM offer of safe withdrawal in exchange for neutrality.

This represents the most severe series of defeats for the regime of Assimi Goïta since 2021, opening the prospect of a sharp shift in the balance of power in West Africa.