Structural slowdown of the U.S. economy as a benchmark for Trump’s team in scaling U.S. tariff measures

On March 12, 2025, the U.S. Department of Labor released a consumer price index report showing that the annual inflation rate in the U.S. was 2.8%, the lowest since 2021.

This figure was lower than the market expected (about 3%), which sent a positive signal to the US economy amid the fragile US stock markets, which have fallen by more than 10% since February 19 amid uncertainty about the economic impact of Trump’s tariffs.

Keeping inflation at 2.8% created the illusion of stabilization of the US economy but, in fact, signaled a structural slowdown in US consumer demand, which lays the foundation for a controlled recession as part of a macroeconomic correction.